ok its been almost 5 years since we last seen Conor McGregor in the UFC octagon.

Taken that into consideration do we actually think Conor will return to the octagon. I believe he wants to compete and he is training hard. That said we have been let down in the past. I mean we had the ultimate fighter with Chandler, we had the prates rumours and white house whispers.

For nearly five years now, the story of Conor McGregor hasn’t been about what he’s done inside the cage — it’s been about when, or if, he’ll come back to it.

Every few months, the narrative resets. A date gets floated. Training clips appear. Dana White sounds optimistic. And then, just as quickly, it all unravels.

A timeline of almost-returns

After his loss to Dustin Poirier in July 2021 — a fight that ended with that gruesome leg break — McGregor’s comeback became both inevitable and uncertain. Recovery was always going to take time, but what followed went far beyond a standard rehab timeline.

By 2022, talk of a return had already started. McGregor re-entered the UFC’s drug testing pool, hinting that a fight announcement wasn’t far off. That never materialised.

In 2023, the hype cycle kicked into full gear again. McGregor coached opposite Michael Chandler on The Ultimate Fighter, a move that traditionally leads directly to a fight between the two coaches. Fans expected a summer showdown. It didn’t happen.

Then came 2024, when the promotion finally put a date on it: McGregor vs. Chandler at UFC 303. It looked real this time — until it wasn’t. The fight was scrapped, reportedly due to injury, and just like that, another comeback dissolved into speculation.

The outside-the-cage distractions

Part of the uncertainty isn’t just physical — it’s everything else.

McGregor’s legal issues and controversies have repeatedly stalled momentum. From assault allegations to civil cases and public incidents, there’s been a steady stream of headlines that have nothing to do with fighting but everything to do with why his career feels stuck in limbo.

Even when he’s healthy, focused, and back in training, those distractions linger. They complicate negotiations, delay timelines, and make it harder for the UFC to fully commit to a return plan.

The UFC’s balancing act

From the UFC’s perspective, McGregor is still the biggest star they’ve ever had. There’s always an incentive to believe — or at least say — that his return is close.

White has remained consistently upbeat, recently suggesting things are “looking good” for McGregor’s comeback. But that optimism isn’t new. He’s said similar things before each of the past few false starts.

At some point, words stop carrying weight.

The promotion also has to think long-term. Banking a major event around McGregor only for it to fall apart again isn’t just frustrating — it’s risky business. That’s likely why there’s been more caution in how they schedule him, even if the public messaging stays positive.

Fans aren’t buying it anymore

There was a time when any McGregor return rumor felt electric. Now, it’s met with skepticism.

It’s not that people don’t want to see him back — quite the opposite. But after multiple cancellations, delays, and near-announcements, fans have learned not to get invested until he’s actually walking to the Octagon.

And even then, some will probably wait until the cage door shuts.

So… is he really coming back?

Maybe. Probably, even. But “probably” has been the answer for years now.

McGregor is still only 30-something, still a massive draw, and still capable of generating interest unlike anyone else in the sport. A return makes sense — financially, competitively, and culturally.

But history matters. And the recent history of Conor McGregor’s career is a pattern of almosts.

Until that changes, skepticism isn’t negativity — it’s just paying attention.

✍️ @robbie

@robbietalksmma

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